Overruns

This tool can be used to compile and visualize data on outcome measurements, forecasts, and overruns. The page is divided into three tabs.

Overruns (actual)

This tab displays collected data on overruns for a specific station over a selected time period. You can choose a substation and date in the top right corner of the page. The substation’s activation limit is then compared with real-time values, and any overruns are calculated.

Summary and charts

In the top row, the average, median, and maximum values for all overruns, as well as the total volume for the selected period, are calculated. The two top charts show the number of overruns and average values for each hour of the day. Further down, the same data is displayed but for each day of the week.

Overruns (forecast)

This tab displays collected data on forecasted overruns for a specific station over a selected time period. You can choose a substation, trading configuration, forecast, and date in the top right corner of the page. The activation limit is then compared with real-time values and the associated forecast, and any overruns are calculated. You can also adjust the number of days back in time that the forecast should be evaluated using the "D-X" button.

Categories and charts

Each graph shows three different data categories:

1. Correctly forecasted quantities: How much of the actual overruns matches what was forecasted.

2. Incorrectly forecasted quantities: How much of the forecasted overruns never occurred, i.e., does not match the actual outcome.

3. Non-forecasted overrun quantities: How much of the actual overruns was never forecasted.

These categories are visualized with bars showing total quantities for the period, per day of the week, and for each hour of the day. The bottom chart shows the distribution of these categories per date in percentage.

Forecast snapshots

This tab displays collected data on forecasts related to how they were used in market events, such as the creation of availability orders and activation for delivery. By selecting a specific date, you can see how the forecast compared to the actual outcome for various days before the operating day, i.e., D-X.